The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Spatial patterns of precipitation change in CMIP5: why the rich do not get richer in the tropics. Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950 to 2000. Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: the HadEX2 dataset. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble. Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 2. Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation. Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation.
Changes in precipitation with climate change. The response of precipitation minus evapotranspiration to climate warming: why the ‘wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier’ scaling does not hold over land. A general framework for understanding the response of the water cycle to global warming over land and ocean. Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over land. Changes in the variability of global land precipitation. Current changes in tropical precipitation. Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. Anthropogenic impact on Earth’s hydrological cycle. Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. This intensification has implications for the risk of flooding as the climate warms, particularly for the world’s dry regions.Īllen, M. Increases in total and extreme precipitation in dry regions are linearly related to the model-specific global temperature change, so that the spread in projected global warming partly explains the spread in precipitation intensification in these regions by the late twenty-first century. Climate projections for the rest of the century show continued intensification of daily precipitation extremes. Despite uncertainties in total precipitation changes, extreme daily precipitation averaged over both dry and wet regimes shows robust increases in both observations and climate models over the past six decades. Here we investigate changes in these two aspects in the world’s dry and wet regions using observations and global climate models. Furthermore, precipitation changes may differ not only between regions but also between different aspects of precipitation, such as totals and extremes. It has been suggested that changes in the spatial distribution of precipitation will amplify differences between dry and wet regions 3, 4, but this has been disputed for changes over land 5, 6, 7, 8. Intensification of the hydrological cycle is expected to accompany a warming climate 1, 2.
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